UFC Lightweight betting trends: Favorites leads the certified 2022-2026 market-specific sample at 214-89-4 for +18.74 units and +6.1% ROI across 307 graded bets.
Top Performer: Favorites
+6.1%
214-89-4 across 307 graded Lightweight bets
Moneyline Performance Analysis
| Bet Type | Record | Units | ROI | Sample | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 214-89-4 | +18.74 | +6.1% | 307 | 100.0% |
| Underdogs | 89-214-4 | -61.67 | -20.1% | 307 | 100.0% |
Proposition Betting Analysis
| Bet Type | Record | Units | ROI | Sample | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 155-119-5 | +1.11 | +0.4% | 279 | 90.9% |
| Under | 119-155-5 | -36.23 | -13.0% | 279 | 90.9% |
| Goes Distance | 134-162-4 | -30.51 | -10.2% | 300 | 97.7% |
| No Distance | 162-134-4 | -2.39 | -0.8% | 300 | 97.7% |
Coverage is market-specific. Missing prices are not inferred or substituted.
Lightweight Betting Trends by Year
| Year | Favorite ROI | Dog ROI | Over ROI | Under ROI | Distance ROI | No Distance ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | +18.1% (66) | -33.1% (66) | -13.7% (66) | -0.3% (66) | -20.8% (66) | +9.7% (66) |
| 2023 | +0.1% (73) | -6.5% (73) | -12.6% (73) | -0.5% (73) | -17.2% (73) | +10.8% (73) |
| 2024 | +4.7% (66) | -55.9% (66) | +28.2% (66) | -38.3% (66) | +5.8% (66) | -16.0% (66) |
| 2025 | +10.6% (69) | -9.2% (69) | +4.1% (69) | -15.1% (69) | +3.1% (69) | -19.4% (69) |
| 2026 YTD | -11.1% (33) | +24.7% (33) | -41.2% (5) | +1.0% (5) | -39.3% (26) | +28.1% (26) |
Performance Summary
Favorites are the top cumulative UFC Lightweight market at +6.1% ROI. The division contains 307 completed fights from 2022 through July 25, 2026.
Analysis Period: January 1, 2022 through July 25, 2026
307 completed UFC Lightweight fights • 66 in 2022 • 73 in 2023 • 66 in 2024 • 69 in 2025 • 33 in 2026 through July 25
ROI uses only market-specific rows whose verified-use control is true. Historical results do not guarantee future outcomes.
Combat Odds 