Combat Odds publishes MMA betting trends from fight-level data. This page explains how records, units and ROI are calculated, how markets are graded, and where the underlying data has limitations.
Promotions and Data Scope
UFC and RIZIN are maintained as separate databases because their available market history, source coverage and event structures are different. UFC historical analysis extends back to 2015. RIZIN is tracked separately across the available modern closing-odds sample.
Other promotions are only added when there is enough verified fight and market data to support meaningful public analysis.
Data Sources
Fight results. Results are verified against promotion-specific and established fight-record sources. UFC fight truth is checked against UFCStats and official UFC sources where needed. RIZIN results are verified against official or otherwise reliable event-result sources.
Betting markets. Historical closing prices are compiled from tracked sportsbook and odds-aggregation sources, including OddsPortal where available. The exact source can vary by promotion and historical period.
A missing market is not counted as a losing bet. When a historical value has been reconstructed or estimated rather than directly observed, that distinction is retained in the working data and should be disclosed when it materially affects the public analysis.
What We Track
- Fighter identities and division
- Fight result and finishing method
- Finishing round and time where available
- Closing moneyline prices
- Closing Over/Under lines and prices
- Distance or No Distance markets where reliable prices are available
- Selected method-of-victory markets where those prices are tracked
How Units Are Calculated
Every qualifying trend is graded as though one unit were risked on each qualifying bet at the tracked closing price.
- A winning -200 favorite returns +0.50 units.
- A losing -200 favorite returns -1.00 unit.
- A winning +250 underdog returns +2.50 units.
- A losing +250 underdog returns -1.00 unit.
This lets the site distinguish win rate from betting profitability. A market can win more often than it loses and still produce a negative return if the prices are too expensive.
How ROI Is Calculated
ROI = total profit or loss divided by total units risked. Because one unit is risked on every qualifying bet, a 20-fight trend that earns +3 units has a +15% ROI.
Units and ROI are always tied to the qualifying sample shown in the article. Different date windows or divisions should not be combined unless the page explicitly does so.
How Over/Under Bets Are Graded
Totals are graded against the actual betting cutoff for the selected market. When exact finish time is available, the fight’s elapsed time is compared directly with that cutoff rather than assuming every finish is an Under.
Exact-cutoff equality cases are flagged for settlement-rule review rather than guessed. Pushes, no contests and other non-standard outcomes are excluded or handled according to the relevant market rules and database conventions.
Distance Markets
Fight Goes Distance and Fight Does Not Go Distance performance is only assigned profit and ROI when a usable market price is stored or otherwise clearly identified in the underlying analysis.
Some historical UFC work has used reconstructed or modeled distance pricing when direct archived markets were unavailable. Those figures should be treated differently from directly observed sportsbook prices. On current event-result pages, Combat Odds does not manufacture a distance-market return when the closing price is unavailable.
Sample Size and Historical Trends
A profitable historical trend is descriptive, not a guarantee. Sample size matters, and smaller divisions or short seasonal windows can produce extreme ROI from only a handful of fights.
Combat Odds publishes the underlying record and sample alongside the return wherever possible so readers can judge whether a trend is broad, recent, narrow or highly price-dependent.
Data Corrections and Updates
The databases are updated as new events are audited. Historical corrections can also change older trend figures when a fight result, closing price, market mapping or grading error is identified.
When data is unavailable, uncertain or still under review, the preferred approach is to exclude it, flag it or show the result without inventing a betting return.
The Standard
The goal is not to make every historical trend look predictive. The goal is to make the record testable.
Combat Odds 