RIZIN Men’s Catchweight betting trends: Overs are 9-5 for +6.01 units and +42.9% ROI since 2025, while underdogs are 8-9 for +3.24 units and +19.1% ROI since 2024.
Top Recent Trend: Over
9-5 since the beginning of 2025
Moneyline Performance Analysis
| Bet Type | Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 9-8 | -2.28 | -13.4% |
| Underdogs | 8-9 | +3.24 | +19.1% |
| Coin-Flip Favorites | 4-4 | -0.71 | -8.9% |
| Coin-Flip Underdogs | 4-4 | +1.60 | +20.0% |
Shoji Maruyama’s +160 decision win over Genji Umeno at Landmark 15 improved the full Catchweight underdog record to 8-9 for +3.24 units and +19.1% ROI.
Since the beginning of 2025, underdogs are 7-7 for +3.31 units and +23.6% ROI, while favorites are 7-7 for -3.18 units and -22.7% ROI. The strongest narrower moneyline trend remains coin-flip underdogs, which are 4-2 for +3.60 units and +60.0% ROI since 2025.
Proposition Betting Analysis
| Bet Type | Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 10-7 | +4.46 | +26.2% |
| Under | 7-10 | -3.66 | -21.5% |
Maruyama-Umeno went Over 1.5 rounds, extending the strongest recent Catchweight market. Since 2025, Overs are 9-5 for +6.01 units and +42.9% ROI.
The 2026 Catchweight sample is still small and has been less impressive, with Overs and Unders both sitting at 2-2. The longer post-2024 window remains the more useful reference, especially because Catchweight matchmaking can vary significantly from event to event.
Catchweight Betting Trends by Year
| Year | Favorite ROI | Dog ROI | Over ROI | Under ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | +30.0% | -2.3% | -51.7% | +21.6% |
| 2025 | -24.9% | +26.1% | +71.1% | -38.9% |
| 2026 YTD | -17.3% | +17.5% | -27.5% | -10.5% |
The yearly swings show why Catchweight should not be treated like a stable traditional division. Most of the totals profit came in 2025, while the 2026 sample has been nearly even by result and negative on both totals sides.
Performance Summary
Based on the betting trends, the strongest current RIZIN Catchweight angle remains the Over, which is 9-5 for +42.9% ROI since 2025. Underdogs have also produced a profit, including the lone Landmark 15 dog winner. Both trends remain useful to monitor, but the sample is smaller and more matchup-dependent than the major fixed divisions.
Analysis Period: July 28, 2024 through July 18, 2026
17 betting-eligible RIZIN Men’s Catchweight fights tracked. Historical results do not guarantee future outcomes.
Combat Odds 
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