RIZIN Heavyweight betting trends: Favorites are 13-4 for +3.14 units and +18.5% ROI across the full sample, while Overs are 8-3 for +4.41 units and +40.0% ROI since the beginning of 2025.
Top Recent Trend: Over
8-3 since the beginning of 2025
Moneyline Performance Analysis
| Bet Type | Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 13-4 | +3.14 | +18.5% |
| Underdogs | 4-13 | -6.99 | -41.1% |
| Coin-Flip Favorites | 6-2 | +2.57 | +32.2% |
| Coin-Flip Underdogs | 2-6 | -3.64 | -45.5% |
Heavyweight has been one of the few RIZIN divisions where favorites have remained the stronger moneyline side across the full sample. Favorites are 13-4 for +18.5% ROI, while underdogs have lost 6.99 units.
The favorite trend has also held up recently. Since 2025, favorites are 8-3 for +1.59 units and +14.5% ROI. Coin-flip favorites have been even stronger over the smaller near-even sample, going 4-1 for +41.1% ROI since 2025.
Proposition Betting Analysis
| Bet Type | Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 9-8 | +2.25 | +13.2% |
| Under | 8-9 | -4.44 | -26.1% |
The strongest recent Heavyweight trend has been the Over. Overs went just 1-5 in 2024 before flipping to 8-2 for +5.41 units and +54.0% ROI in 2025. The only Heavyweight fight in the 2026 sample went Under, leaving the since-2025 Over record at 8-3 for +40.0% ROI.
The recent Over result is strong, but most of the profit came during 2025. More 2026 fights are needed before the trend can be considered as established as the Flyweight Over market.
Heavyweight Betting Trends by Year
| Year | Favorite ROI | Dog ROI | Over ROI | Under ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | +25.8% | -67.5% | -36.0% | +29.9% |
| 2025 | +8.7% | -19.4% | +54.0% | -69.4% |
| 2026 YTD | +72.5% | -100.0% | -100.0% | +70.0% |
The 2026 row represents only one fight and should not be treated as a meaningful trend. The more useful Heavyweight read is the steady favorite performance combined with the sharp shift toward Overs in 2025.
Performance Summary
Based on the betting trends, RIZIN Heavyweight has historically been a favorable division for favorites. The developing totals angle is the Over, which is 8-3 for +40.0% ROI since 2025. The sample remains smaller than the major divisions, so current prices and matchup context remain especially important.
Analysis Period: March 23, 2024 through June 6, 2026
17 betting-eligible RIZIN Heavyweight fights tracked. Historical results do not guarantee future outcomes.
Combat Odds 
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