RIZIN Lightweight betting trends: Favorites are 8-1 for +2.47 units and +27.4% ROI in 2026 after Johnny Case added another favorite win at Landmark 15.
Top 2026 Trend: Favorites
8-1 through nine fights
Moneyline Performance Analysis
| Bet Type | Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 27-8 | +5.46 | +15.6% |
| Underdogs | 8-27 | -3.75 | -10.7% |
| Coin-Flip Favorites | 7-1 | +4.05 | +50.6% |
| Coin-Flip Underdogs | 1-7 | -5.67 | -70.9% |
The full RIZIN Lightweight sample favors favorites, but the year-by-year swings remain extreme. Favorites dominated 2024, underdogs produced the strongest return in 2025, and favorites have moved back to the front in 2026.
Johnny Case’s win at Landmark 15 pushed the 2026 favorite record to 8-1 for +2.47 units and +27.4% ROI. Underdogs are 1-8 this year for -4.29 units and -47.7% ROI.
Since the beginning of 2025, however, underdogs are still 7-16 for +4.25 units and +18.5% ROI, while favorites are 16-7 for only +0.21 units and +0.9% ROI. That longer split shows why Lightweight remains one of the promotion’s most volatile divisions.
Proposition Betting Analysis
| Bet Type | Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 16-19 | -3.19 | -9.1% |
| Under | 19-16 | -1.49 | -4.3% |
Neither totals side has produced a reliable long-term profit. The Landmark 15 Case-Yoshimura fight went Under, moving the 2026 totals split to 6-3 for the Over and 3-6 for the Under.
Overs are now +0.70 units and +7.8% ROI in 2026, while Unders are -3.87 units and -43.0% ROI. The current Over result is still positive, but the return has fallen sharply from the pre-Landmark 15 mark.
Lightweight Betting Trends by Year
| Year | Favorite ROI | Dog ROI | Over ROI | Under ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | +43.8% | -66.7% | -4.8% | +19.1% |
| 2025 | -16.1% | +61.0% | -23.6% | +0.6% |
| 2026 YTD | +27.4% | -47.7% | +7.8% | -43.0% |
No other major RIZIN division in the current sample has produced such sharp alternating yearly results. Coin-flip favorites remain the strongest full-sample market at 7-1 for +4.05 units and +50.6% ROI.
Performance Summary
RIZIN Lightweight remains a volatile division rather than a permanent favorite or underdog market. The current 2026 sample strongly favors favorites at 8-1 and +27.4% ROI, but the since-2025 data still shows underdogs slightly ahead on profit. Recent form remains more useful here than the blended three-year record.
Analysis Period: February 24, 2024 through July 18, 2026
35 betting-eligible RIZIN Lightweight fights tracked. Historical results do not guarantee future outcomes.
Combat Odds 
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